🔍 Introduction: The Myth We All Believe
In modern organizations, merit is sacred. Performance reviews, promotions, and even team rituals are structured around the belief that effort equals success. But what if that’s only part of the truth?
What if luck — or more precisely, coincidence — plays a central role, not only in life but in our careers and projects too?
🎲 Part 1: What Is Luck, Really?
Luck is not just the lottery ticket, the fluke, or the windfall.
It’s also:
- Being born in a stable country.
- Having parents who supported your education.
- Not facing discrimination.
- Starting a project the year before a technological breakthrough.
- Meeting the right person at the right time.
📌 Key idea: Luck = Circumstances beyond our control that shape our trajectory.
📈 Part 2: Coincidence in Long-Term Projects
From my experience coaching dozens of long-term initiatives across Europe, I estimate that for any project longer than 12 months, 60 to 70% of the final result is shaped by coincidence. Not planning. Not skill. Not resilience alone.
Coincidence may come as a market shift, a team member leaving, a sudden client pivot, or a global event.
This isn’t pessimism — it’s clarity.
Because...
🎯 Personal insight: Luck might just be how we respond to coincidence.
🧭 Part 3: Why Ignoring Luck Leads to Mismanagement
When managers believe in pure meritocracy, they often:
- Over-reward the already privileged.
- Underestimate the hidden efforts of those overcoming structural challenges.
- Discourage vulnerability and honesty.
- Create guilt or impostor syndrome in top performers.
And perhaps most critically: they lose sight of team motivation, especially in diverse environments where chances weren’t equally distributed from the start.
🛠️ Part 4: Tools to Acknowledge Luck (Without Falling Into Fatalism)
Here are three practical ways to make space for chance in your leadership style:
1. The Trajectory Map
Ask team members to map their journey: What key events shaped their careers? What role did coincidence or luck play?
Use this in retrospectives or development reviews.
2. The "Privilege Pause"
Before praising someone’s results, ask: What invisible factors may have contributed? Would someone else with the same skillset have had the same access?
3. Framing Feedback Differently
Instead of saying:
“You deserve it, you worked hard.”
Try:
“Your efforts were great, and the context helped too. Let’s explore what made this success possible — so others can learn from the whole picture.”
🌱 Part 5: The Manager as a Steward of Complexity
Good managers don’t simplify reality — they embrace it.
Acknowledging the role of luck doesn’t erase effort. It honours complexity.
It helps build systems that support real motivation, not just apparent performance.
When we understand that recognising chance is an act of humility, we open the door to more just, inclusive, and honest leadership.
🧭 TOOL 1: Trajectory Map – Reflection Template
(for individuals or teams)
Purpose: Encourage awareness of the personal and external factors that shape professional paths, including the role of coincidence and chance.
✍️ Instructions:
Invite each team member (or yourself) to reflect on key moments in their career or a specific project. For each moment, identify:
- Event or Milestone (e.g. got promoted, joined a new team)
- Your Effort (what did you do to reach that?)
- Contextual Factors (timing, people, access, resources)
- Element of Luck or Coincidence (what was beyond your control?)
🗺️ Example Table Format:
| Event / Milestone | My Effort | Contextual Factors | Luck / Coincidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Got promoted to lead | Took extra responsibility | Manager left, org was expanding | Timing – a vacancy opened unexpectedly |
| Joined international team | Strong portfolio, applied confidently | Multilingual culture, recruiter liked me | They had one spot left that week |
| Finished a big project | Night/weekend work, coordinated a lot | Good vendor, stable budget | Client didn’t change scope midway |
🌀 Use this in retrospectives, career coaching, or self-reflection workshops.
✋ TOOL 2: The "Privilege Pause"
5 Quick Reflection Questions
Purpose: Help managers and teams avoid unconscious bias by creating a space to reflect on hidden advantages that influence outcomes.
Use these five questions before giving praise, promotion, or forming assumptions:
- 📍 Did this person have access to something others didn’t? (e.g., network, timing, mentorship)
- 🕓 Did the timing of this situation benefit them uniquely?
- 🌍 Would someone from another background have had the same opportunity?
- 🧩 Was this a result of skill only — or did context shape the result?
- 🤝 How can we make such opportunities more accessible to others next time?
💬 This isn’t about guilt. It’s about awareness and justice.
💬 TOOL 3: Feedback Framing Guide
For Performance Reviews or 1-on-1s
Purpose: Avoid reinforcing a myth of pure merit, while still celebrating achievement. Use these sentence structures to balance recognition, effort, and context.
🔄 Instead of saying:
“You totally earned this. You worked harder than anyone.”
Try:
“Your effort was clear, and it aligned with the right context — you seized the opportunity well.”
🔄 Instead of:
“You deserve all the credit for this success.”
Try:
“You contributed a lot, and it’s great that the conditions helped you shine. Let’s unpack what made this work so we can share the learning.”
🔄 Instead of:
“That person just isn’t trying hard enough.”
Try:
“Let’s understand the full picture — maybe they’re dealing with context we don’t see.”
🎯 Key Principle: Recognising effort and context builds a culture of collective intelligence — not silent competition.